A response from Jim H

I received this note from Jim H and thought it worth sharing:

I took special note of our thoughts on the economy, especially the "Disposable Nation" and the "Greater than 11,000 and less than $3" articles. I've always considered myself somewhat of a closet economist, I took several economics classes while in MBA school, so I try and pay attention to these things. There are a few paradoxes in the current economy, you touch on a few. One is the recession/not-recession topic. All the economic indicators we've used for 100 years say not-recession, yet the vast majority of Americans (including me) say yes-recession. I think that as a nation we have become much more economically aware in the last 30 or so years and we see it coming. I think this explains the paradox, we are not technically in a recession today but we expect that we will be. Thus the opinion of the American public is - obviously - a forward indicator. It is a self-fulfilling indicator as well. As an economist then, I would say that "all things remaining the same" then we will soon be in a recession of the classical sense. Unless something changes, and that something may be energy costs. People said we were in a recession when they saw $4 gas going to $5. Now we are at $3 gas going to ... who knows? I've believed that what set us off economically was the double whammy of the housing collapse and energy costs. I think our economy is very resilient for many reasons, and no single thing can really set it back. It took the two punches to knock it back. If we are at bottom on the housing crisis (questionable) and if energy has stabilized, maybe people will sense a turn and we will change the mass-psychological-forward-indicator.

This may not be enough to overcome the don't-spend mentality that has gripped us all. The paradox here is that what is good for us financially as individuals is bad for us collectively as an economy. Spending drives the economy, and durable goods replacement is a big part of it. We've stopped outfitting our homes, and stopped buying cars. That's the bulk of it. We can't buy enough clothes, lattes, or iPhones to make up for that. I worry that this trend - both economically and socially driven - could ultimately be a devastating structural change to our economy and standard of living. We as Americans spend a lot, most folks in other western nations have decried this over the last few decades, we've been somewhat demonized for our consumption. But that's an old story, I've heard it since I was a kid, and by and large the American standard of living continues to outstrip the rest of the world. I see a totally different psyche in the UK where my wife's family is from. We go visit them often, I've spent probably two months there in the last three or four years. Her relatives are considered UK middle class, but here they would be struggling-lower-middle class. They don't buy things on a whim. A couple of years ago while on a visit my wife bought her grandmother a new TV. She was surprised at the reaction from the family - it was a huge deal. They just don't consume like we do because they have a perception - mostly correctly - that their financial and economic status is locked and won't change over the coming year or the coming decade or their working lives. The upward social mobility isn't part of their core cultural belief. On the other hand, we as Americans are confident that we will do better next year and next decade, and that gives us a comfort level in spending. The spending drives the economy which drives the upward mobility. In essence, I believe that our core beliefs as Americans drive the upward spiral. Most European countries are stuck in a slow downward spiral. I would hate to see a confluence of events here in the US that could disrupt our upward spiral.